He should stay. Period.

Mikhail Grabovski is a pending Restricted Free Agent this summer. Brian Burke will have exclusive rights to discuss an extension with the Belorussian, but it remains to be seen if he wants to retain him. Decisions, decisions…

Many have tagged Grabovski as a head-case whose attitude is a detriment inside the locker room (well, that’s what Montreal Canadiens fans say anyway). To prove this, one may point to the two altercations that transpired between Grabovski and teammate Jason Blake this season. The most recent incident took place after Grabovski hit Blake from behind during a scrimmage. But hold on, Grabovski’s hair is not flaming red, and he’s not trying to send his teammates to eternal damnation (again, as Montreal Canadiens fans would say).

”I played just a little bit hard,” Grabovski said.”(Blake) is the best player on the team. The next time I will go a little bit slower. It’s OK. I’m young.” – Toronto Sun

After he said this, Grabovski was involved in a touching Hallmark Moment when he came up behind his teammate, gave him a hug and said, “See. Everything’s fine.”

So there you have it, Grabovski is not Sean Avery’s inbred son (hey, you never know what the media will cook up these days), and he does have a beating heart.

Pertaining to the blog, Grabovski should stay with the Leafs for one simple reason: Potential. Simply put, Grabovski’s got moves. His dangles have often made defenders look silly, and his speed through the neutral zone often helps him generate odd-man rushes. His 16 goals and 35 points is also encouraging, as he should finish somewhere between 40-45 points. Let’s be real, how much points were we actually expecting from Grabovski? Ron Wilson said it himself when the season debuted in October that Grabovski should score somewhere between 40-50 points.

In terms of the negatives, Grabovski lacks in the physical department. While he’s decent in his own end, you’ll rarely see him initiate an effective body check (ranked 13^th on the team with 44 hits). He also tends to hold on to the puck too long at times, but that’ll come with experience. Let’s not forget that, while he’s 25, this is his first full season in the NHL. He needs time to adjust to the speed of the NHL, and learn how to make split-second decisions at both ends of the rink.

What made Grabovski such an offensive weapon in the RSL and the AHL was his ability to dangle his way through the opposition, using his vision and lightning-quick speed to set-up and finish plays. In the NHL, he’s not experienced enough (yet) to be hanging the opposition’s jock straps from the rafters, as defenders often shut him down.

Grabovski may be frustrating to watch now, but wait until he starts to truly adapt to the NHL game. His vision, speed, creativity, dangling and playmaking abilities will make him a solid second-liner for years to come.

Grabovski is a project that requires patience.

Potential to be: 20 goal, 60 point player (or more)

ronguillet@gmail.com

The Games
Throughout his career as a starter, Brodeur has made a point of ensuring he keeps his back-ups on the bench – often requesting he play pretty much every game possible, regardless of how it may affect his team in the playoffs (as Brodeur has recently gained a reputation of being completely burned out come playoff time, allowing “non-Brodeur goals”, such as this one ). Unlike Patrick Roy, or pretty much any other goaltender in NHL history, Brodeur basically demands 70+ games a year, reaching a career-maximum of 78 games played in 2006-07. The most Roy ever played in a season was 65. So with an average of 10 more games a year on Roy, regardless of skill, it was pretty much just a matter of time before this record came about.

The Ties
Also of interest is the whole shootout issue, which has been beaten to death in other blogs and so forth, so I will basically leave that alone. We all know Marty is getting more “wins” because of the removal of ties.

The Numbers
But there is one major thing I would like to emphasize here. Martin Brodeur spent more than half his career behind Scott Stevens and Scott Neidermayer, on a team that focussed specifically on defensive hockey. Basically, any goaltender playing with the Devils during this era would inevitably rack up the same numbers as Brodeur – and as we discussed, Brodeur certainly had his fair share of games. Case in point – as of this writing (Sun, Mar. 15, 2009), Marty has a save percentage*( of .922 (NHL.com). Devil’s “back-up” Kevin Weekes is currently standing at .924, with Clemmensen not far behind the legendary Brodeur with .917. In other words, when it comes to saving the puck, Weekes is successful 92.4% of the time, and Marty is sitting at 92.2%. Brodeur – Hall of Fame a few days after retirement; Weekes – basically back-up goalie for life, since he has played for garbage teams most of his career. Brodeur’s numbers were also slaughtered by John Vanbiesbrouck in 2001-02 and 2002-03, Corey Schwab in 2002-03, and by Schwab and Clemmensen in 2003-04 . Moral: had any one of these 3 guys played the games that Brodeur played with New Jersey, they, too, would be breaking NHL records. The Hall of Famer during this era is the Devil’s fricken Defence core, not the goalie behind them.

The Conclusion
Martin Brodeur made a Hall of Fame career for himself by being in the right place at the right time.

* I use save percentage because it has no bias – it takes only the number of saves per shots into consideration, and not the team’s performance as much as GAA would. 

Top 3:#3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Acquiring Vermette for a 2nd round pick.

In what was possibly the most intelligent move by the history of the Blue Jackets’ management, they dealt an injured goaltender who will not play a single game this season to the Senators for Antoine Vermette. They also dealt a 2nd round pick, along with the injured Pascal Leclaire, to Ottawa as compensation for his injury. Essentially, for the rest of this year (including the playoff run), the Jackets dealt a 2nd round pick for a player with an unbelievable amount of untapped potential in Vermette. He can fly, he can shoot, and he has the ability to jump very, very high.

Vermette joined the Jackets after they went 2-4 in their last 6 games, and immediately sparked the team to a huge victory over the Red Wings (8-2), followed by a 2-0 shutout over league leading Boston Bruins, and a 4-3 win over the hottest team in the NHL, the Pittsburgh Penguins. That’s right, arguably the 3 best teams in the league right now all fell to the hands of the Blue Jackets. Did I mention he’s been one of the 3 stars of 2 of his 3 games in a Jackets uniform? Over those 3 games, he has a goal and 3 assists, and is a +2. In 62 games for the Senators, who basically had him rotating between 2nd and 3rd line, he 9 goals and 28 points. To put this into perspective, if Vermette continues his strong play as a Blue Jacket for the rest of the year, he could post an additional 18 points in the remaining 14 games, giving him 22 points as a Jacket. Essentially, in 17 games, Vermette could nearly match his point total on the season as a Senator. Talk about a guy who just needed a change of scenery. Not the mention, the Jackets now own the 6th seed in the West and are just 1 point behind the Vancouver Canucks, who they could very well leapfrog at any minute. For those who thought the Jackets didn’t do much to guarantee themselves a playoff position, you better take a closer look before casting a judgment. This team is much stronger than they are at first glance.

In a Few Words: Nash, the untapped potential of Vermette, and the heroic antics of Steve Mason = Cinderella Story.

#2. Calgary Flames: Acquiring Jordan Leopold and Olli Jokinen.

Both players have joined the team for 5 games thus far and are immediately paying dividends. Jokinen has 5 goals in as many games but is a -2 in that duration with 6 PIM. Leopold has 1 assist for his efforts and has equaled Jokinen’s -2 with 2 PIM. They both average between 18 to 20 minutes of ice time per game and are effective in their role. The -2 statistic does not reflect their game whatsoever. Considering both are offensive machines, it’s no surprise they would not be fantastic defensive players but that is not why Sutter acquired them. If he wanted a shut down defenseman he would have traded for Andy Wozniewski. All kidding aside, Jokinen has added that secondary punch this team has craved for years. He has been rumored to be dealt to Calgary before he even signed his lengthy contract with Florida and it’s no wonder – he is absolutely the perfect fit for this club. Calgary is known for playing a physical and somewhat boring game as they rely on their defensive and goaltending skills to bail them out from time to time but not they have a legitimate offensive threat in the new “big 3”; Iginla, Jokinen and Cammalleri.

He

Then throw in some zesty Bertuzzi and Langkow and you have yourself a hell of a strong core up front. This team is scary good. How scary? They can bounce back whenever they feel like digging in their heels and regain control of a game. Just ask the Detroit Red Wings who watched their 4-2 lead after 40 hold off the Flames from scoring until there was just under 4 minutes to play and they netted 3 goals in 2:02. That’s right, with under 4 minutes left, the Flames forced the Red Wings to tie the game up with under a minute left. Then they routed Conklin with 2 out of 3 shots in the shootout to win the game. They made it look easy, and that is downright scary when you’re playing the Red Wings. Did I mention they were outshot 45 to 33? No worries though, they outshot the Red Wings 17-2 in the final frame. Let me repeat that, 17 to TWO. So much for the offensive dynamo that is Detroit.

In a Few Words: Fear the Flames.

#1. Pittsburgh Penguins: Acquiring Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz

There was no big change, there was no trade of Jordan Staal for a veteran shooter or leadership, there was no defensive explosion, and they fixed everything without tearing much of anything down. Ray Shero dealt Ryan Whitney for a great prospect in Tangradi and Chris Kunitz and dealt a conditional pick for Bill Guerin. Oh, and they also fired Michel Therrien – this guy:

"They can't fire me. Look how awesome I look!"

They replaced Therrien with Dan Bylsma and he’s put the “sma” in “smackdown” that the Penguins have been dishing out lately. The team is 8-1-1 in their last 10, and are far and away the hottest team in the league right now. Chris Kunitz, who has averaged just over 16 minutes of ice time per game in Pittsburgh, has 3 goals and 8 points with a +5 in 7 games. Yeah, he’s over a point a game after being considered a 40 to 50 point guy his entire career. Did I mention his shooting percentage in Penguin-land is 20%? I didn’t? Better jot that down next time you play proline. Bill Guerin, the old guy who they got for a weird conditional pick, has been playing like his 25 again. As a Penguin, he’s appeared in 4 games and has posted 1 goal, 4 assists, and a +2. He plays just over 17 minutes a game and he was practically free. In their last 7 games, the Penguins have averaged 4 goals a game. To put that in a much simpler term: If you tune into a Penguin game and watch 15 minutes and they don’t score, you’re not watching a Penguins game.

In a Few Words: If the Playoffs began today, I would feel bad for Washington.

Stay tuned for Part 2: The House of the Falling Sun.

Micheal A. Aldred
michealaldred@hotmail.com

Let’s lay it on the table right away, the Leafs owe Martin Gerber nothing, and judging from his play this season (and the fact that he was acquired through re-entry waivers), he has done nothing to earn the role as a starting goaltender. Under the circumstances, Gerber should be content with playing half of the remaining games.

While many have pointed out the Gerber would perform well in Toronto due to having no pressure, the Leafs shouldn’t feel any need to appoint him as Toskala’s replacement. Instead, it would be more logical for the Leafs, considering their current position in the standings, to split the rest of the games with Joseph and Gerber 50/50. After all, Gerber definitely won’t be a Leaf next season, so the only thing he’s playing for is himself. The Leafs, who sit 11 points from 8th place, will not make the playoffs. Period. Their season is officially over, so what’s the harm in playing Joseph in more games? The Leafs have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Gerber may have the edge over Joseph in terms of value to the team (well, depending which way you look at it), but as I said, the Leafs have nothing to play for… except a top 5 pick. While it is still crucial for the Leafs to play their best goaltender, in respect to the team (telling them “Hey team! We’re tanking because you’re all incompetent! And Joseph, you can’t stop a beach ball, so get out there and start playing,” might not sit well with the team, or Free Agents who may be interested in coming here this summer), the Leafs have to start playing Joseph more compared to when he was backing-up Vesa Toskala.

The Leafs currently sit five points from a top 5 pick, and if they lose against the Senators tonight you can make that three points.

The Leafs can try winning the rest of their games, but I think I speak for the majority of Leafs/Tank Nation when I say, we’re NOT behind you every step of the way!

ronguillet@gmail.com

How will Jokinen and Leopold help Calgary?

The NHL trade deadline has come and gone for another year and it’s quite apparent that Darryl Sutter didn’t forget his BlackBerry in his other jacket this time around. Sutter was very busy at the deadline acquiring what his team needs most, a top line centre and a puck moving defenceman. The best part? The price wasn’t as high as one might have thought. With these new additions, the Flames roster for the upcoming playoffs is set and expectations are higher than ever.

During his time in Calgary, it’s safe to say that General Manager Darryl Sutter has made some interesting moves. These generally fit into Sutter’s iron clad three and five year plans for his players and his franchise. While they can be hard to understand on the surface, it’s made harder by the fact that Sutter holds things pretty close to the chest. Recently, he was asked repeatedly what he would be looking to add to the team as the trade deadline approached. Time and time again, Sutter gave the answer that he was confident in the team he had assembled and didn’t really feel the need to give up assets to secure a “rental” player or to make a move for the sake of making a move. He openly denied rumors he was presented with and we all believed he would be relatively quiet.

On Wednesday morning as I rolled out of bed, I got word that Sutter had re-acquired defenseman Jordan Leopold from the Colorado Avalanche. I was immediately excited because I didn’t expect this and was a huge Leopold fan. Then I braced myself for the price. Recent waiver pick up Lawrence Nycholat, prospect Ryan Wilson and a second round pick. Not bad. Not exactly a blockbuster, but a good pick up that would surely help the Flames after losing Mark Giordano to injury.

Later that morning, the hockey world was lit up by the news that the Flames had traded for Olli Jokinen, easily the biggest trade of the day. Sutter also got a third round pick in the deal for long time Flame Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust and a conditional first round pick. At that moment, Calgary had one of, if not the most dangerous offensive line in the NHL with Jokinen centering Jarome Iginla and Michael Cammalleri.

In the Flames’ first two contests with the new additions, they beat up on the Philadelphia Flyers 5-1 with Jokinen scoring twice and Leopold also adding a marker. Then they lost 6-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes, a stark contrast from the previous night. Of course, they had played the night before and Curtis McElhinney got the start in net in Raleigh. The rookie has yet to win a game and the Flames just can’t put together a decent effort in front of him. You could say the jury is still out on the moves for now.

Looking at the Flames now, they seem stacked for a deep playoff run and Sutter has clearly sent the message that he believes the team has the chance to win it all and is doing everything he can to give them that opportunity. He realizes what some other GMs don’t seem to, namely in places like Washington, that the window for success in the salary cap era is very small and you have to everything possible to jump through it.

With the acquisition of Olli Jokinen, the likelihood of Michael Cammalleri re-signing with the team at the end of the season has become very slim. Clearly, this is the year the Flames have to make a push for the Stanley Cup. They easily boast one of the best offensive and defensive cores in the game when they are healthy, as they are finally expected to be when the first round rolls around and have one of the best goalies available in Miikka Kiprusoff. The only real weakness is in the back up goaltender position. Sutter didn’t address this problem because frankly, if Kiprusoff goes down, the Flames have almost no chance at success anyway.

There is no question that the Flames are built for success, and the rest of the league has taken notice. San Jose and Detroit have reason to be worried in the post season for the first real time this season. The teams below the Flames are shaking in their boots. The Devils and Bruins can’t be feeling good after the emergence of another super power from the seemingly superior Western Conference. Whether or not the Flames are playing in June remains to be seen, but for the first time since 1989, you can finally say the Calgary Flames are a prominent Stanley Cup threat. Flames fans have every reason to begin planning the start of the 2009 Red Mile festivities. It all comes down to Darryl Sutter and the team he has assembled. Can Calgary become Canada’s Team again?

mitch.hart@gmail.com

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1. Are you content with Brian Burke’s decisions at the Trade Deadline?

2. Do you think Gerber will aid Tank Nation, or further the Leafs from a top 5 pick?

3. Nik Antropov and Dominic Moore are no longer Maple Leafs, do you see either of them re-signing with the Leafs during the off-season?

4. Pavel Kubina (4 G, 8 PTS in his last 6 GP) and Tomas Kaberle will have their no-trade clauses lifted between the NHL Entry Draft and August 15th, do you see Burke unloading any of them? Both of them? One of them?

5. Vesa Toskala is out for the season. Will he be the Leafs’ starting goaltender next season, or will he be traded during the summer?

6. If the Leafs continue to separate themselves from a top 5 pick, should Burke trade down?

7. Burke will have plenty of options to start the rebuilding in Toronto this summer – free agency, draft day, trading, and college signings. If you were Burke, what transactions would you do to turn this team around?

8. Anton Stralman and Jiri Tlusty have been lighting up the AHL (Tlusty named AHL player of the month in February). Do you see either of them playing an important role in the Leafs’ future?

9. Justin Pogge has struggled in the NHL thus far. Do you still see him as the goaltender of the future?

10. Is it possible Mats Sundin returns to the Leafs next season?

Super Duper Bonus Question!

1. If you were a chick, who’s the one guy you would sleep with?

ronguillet@gmail.com

Instead, Burke traded Nik Antropov, Dominic Moore and the Toronto Marlies’ Richard Petiot for two 2nd-round picks (BUF and NYR), a 4th-round pick (TBL), a conditional pick (NYR), Olaf Kolzig (our next savior), Jamie Heward and Andy Rogers. Also, he picked up Martin Gerber (who was sensational tonight in Washington) and Erik Reitz from waivers.

Nothing flashy, but Burke kept to his word, and the Leafs are now in a stronger position going into the 2009 NHL Entry Draft in Montreal on June 26-27. For those who hoped for better returns and/or more players moved from the Leafs, don’t fret, the off-season will mark the official turnaround of a franchise in dire need of one.

The fact the Trade Deadline is so pumped up by the media is the main contributor to the madness that unfolds each season (although General Manager’s were considerably more conservative this time around). GM’s feel the added pressure to fix the woes of their respective clubs, which leads to the trading of prospects, roster players and draft picks – and not surprisingly, the sellers usually come out on top.

While the Leafs were obviously sellers going into March 4th, Burke had some delicate situations with blueliners Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina, who each have a no-trade clause in their contracts. Because of John Ferguson Jr.’s spectacular business decisions, Burke had to be wary of the value of his defensemen. The scrutiny of the Deadline (cap restrictions + attempting to bolster line-up during the season) minimizes the amount of potential suitors, so Burke’s options were limited. While he may not be in a position to demand a 1st round pick, a prospect and roster player, he will have a larger amount of teams interested in his blueliners, so that means a wider array of prospects and draft picks to consider.

It would have been nice if the Leafs were free from the oppression of the NTC, especially considering the asking price for Kaberle, but there’s no rush to unload the Leafs’ core just yet. After all, Burke joined the Leafs just recently, so analyzing his club for the rest of the season may be a crucial step in deciding who is worthy of being apart of the rebuilding plan in Toronto.

The Leafs’ youth can’t do it on their own, so is keeping atleast one blueliner in Kaberle and Kubina important? And which one? Kubina is on a tear of late, and would be an excellent mentor for the Leafs’ blueline. Kaberle is an important factor the Leafs’ PP, and although he lacks the defensive game to be a two-way contributor, he’d serve as a mentor for up-and-comer Anton Stralman – who has been progressing nicely.

Kaberle and Kubina aside, the Leafs are free of NTC’s this off-season. Not only that, but their core players, who are all signed on for the 2009-10 season, all have movable contracts. So if Burke wants to give this team a make-over, he’ll be more than capable of doing it – and the fact that Antropov and Moore are subtracted from the line-up is already a shake-up.

For once, the Leafs will have the luxury of cap space with 8.75M at their disposal going into the off-season. While the Leafs’ pivotal moment will be the Entry Draft this summer, July 1st can play a big role to the Leafs’ rebuilding plan.

Take a look at some of the UFA’s available this year:

D Francois Beauchemin (29)

RW Maxim Afinogenov (29)

C Mike Cammaleri (27)

D Jordan Leopold (28)

LW David Moss (27)

LW Martin Havlat (28)

G Andrew Raycroft (29)– I kid, I kid.

C Johan Franzen (29)

D Jay Bouwmeester (25)

D Kurtis Foster (27)

LW Marian Gaborik (27)

D Mike Komisarek (27) — long shot, will likely re-sign with Habs.

LW Alex Tanguay (29)

D Ville Koistinen (27)

LW Taylor Pyatt (27)

If the Leafs can collect more draft picks and/or prospects this off-season, coupled with some key UFA signings (with fair contracts, mind you) the Leafs can finally take the first step in finding the remedy to this 41-year Cup drought.

In Burke we trust.

ronguillet@gmail.com

Which leads us to today, the sequel. The trade deadline has passed, everyone was rescued, and father and son reunite (Quaid/Gyllenhaal, and Leafs fans’ fathers and sons stating “well then, that was disappointing”). Oh, I forgot, there’s also the relation of movie goers also stating “well then, that was disappointing”.

“The Day after Yesterday” kicks off with fans still discussing the yester-festivities. People are curiously seeking answers on the “conditional pick”, which Alec stated was a 4th if they make the playoffs and a 3rd if the Rangers somehow reach the Eastern Conference Finals (another rare phenomenon. “The Day after Never Gonna Happen”. Buy the trilogy on DVD!) Others are wondering if Martin Gerber is going to get the start tonight. Well, (SPOILER ALERT!) he will. They also wonder if Erik Reitz will play his first game tonight as a Maple Leaf (SPOILER ALERT!) he will (Jonas Frogren and Tim Stapleton have been demoted).

But it wasn’t necessarily these moves that surprised people the most. Toronto now has a goaltender who is capable of carrying the club the rest of the way, and another stay at home defenseman who isn’t afraid to mix it up (even if he does somewhat fight using the Belak-rabbit punches). Burke felt the team needed one more offensive forward to fill the void so he signed 31 year old free agent forward, Jeff Hamilton, who has 53 points in 50 games for the AHL’s Chicago Wolves this season. Will he start tonight? TSN says “more than likely”.

It may not be a total shake down, but the Leafs will ice a much different team for tonight’s matchup with the Washington Capitals. Although he was unable to deal off a guy like Kaberle or Kubina, Brian Burke still managed to make a splash at the deadline. He acquired 3 picks, and bought a 4th rounder for 500K. He shut down Toskala for the year, brought in a more physical depth and replaced Dominic Moore with a cheaper forward to finish off the season.

In his press conference, he stated “I don’t believe it’s right to ask a guy to waive his NTC”. I agree Burke, that’s why it will be better to trade them come draft day when you don’t have to ask. Kubina and Kaberle’s NTC’s have a contractual “freebie” clause that will automatically lift them from Draft Day to August 15th. In that time, Burke can do whatever he chooses to do without asking either of them to waive.

The Leafs have replaced most of the picks they dealt and still have the ammunition necessary to make a splash on draft day to jump up a bit or acquire secondary first-rounders. If anything, Burke has the Leafs exactly where we all hoped they would be, despite our clouded dreams. No need to be upset at the Leafs not getting a first round pick – only Jokinen was believed to be worth one this season, and Antropov is no Olli Jokinen.

Now the Leafs travel to Washington to battle the Capitals with a weaker team in terms of scoring power, but a stronger team in terms of grit. Gerber looks to prove he is still capable of being a number 1 goaltender, so don’t expect a blow out. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gerber posted great numbers for the rest of the season. It’s a fresh start for him and there’s no pressure. At this point, what goaltender wouldn’t want to play for the Leafs right now? (Besides Justin Pogge).

It’s the day after tomorrow, and we’re in America’s Capital, and the only way the Leafs will win a cup is if the world somehow freezes over. Everything is normal, once again.

Micheal A. Aldred

michealaldred@hotmail.com

Trade Deadline on The Score!

Follow along with the NHL Deadline tracker with me on The Score. Click here to see the latest trades, rumors, and speculation with up to date information.

Micheal A. Aldred
michealaldred@hotmail.com